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 Post subject: Re: Wolves vs Brentford
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:12 pm 
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Left back wrote:
toomb wrote:

It's looking at Expected Goals, which basically measures quality of chances created. On average, based on the chances created, how many goals would you expect to score?

So, for example, it would weight Bennett's winner against Bristol City as a larger Expected Goal than Neves' winner at Sheffield Wednesday. Both were winning goals, but you'd expect to score Bennett's chance a lot more than you would Neves'


So it's based on someone's (or a group) judgement about the degree of difficulty rather than hard data. A level of subjectivity then.


No, it will typically use Opta data. The first xG models pretty much just shot location, something like this:

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Basically, the closer and more central the shot location, the higher weighting it would have. Between the posts, in the six yard box has a high weighting, then as you move further away from goal or more angled, the weighting falls.

Since then, models have become more developed, and will factor in things like defender positions, whether it was left foot, right foot, header, a volley, one on one with keeper etc. But it's all data driven

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:43 pm 
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I see. That means that teams try to shoot at the goals ?

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:01 pm 
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suiging wrote:
I see. That means that teams try to shoot at the goals ?


Knew we'd get there in the end

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:11 pm 
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Thanks for your patience Toomb. I still think there is a danger of over analyzing at times. One thing for certain is that we will not score 1.6 goals tonight so I won't be betting my house on the stats. :lol:

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:20 pm 
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Hi,

I wonder what Brian clough would have made of those graphs?
I can guess where he wiped with them!

Not sure that they make a difference personally ...it’s easy to complicate a simple situation.

Brentford are no pushovers, so I think it will be tight. 1-1 or 1-2 to them
That’s based on form alone....because I live in America and I haven’t seen wolves play this season. Will be coming to the uk to watch them play forest, I hope.

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:22 pm 
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Left back wrote:
Thanks for your patience Toomb. I still think there is a danger of over analyzing at times. One thing for certain is that we will not score 1.6 goals tonight so I won't be betting my house on the stats. :lol:


Everyone uses expected goals, I guarantee at some point tonight, we will all think "he should have scored that". Expected Goals just tries to put a number on that.

And Expected Goals is fairly useless for a single game. It's more useful for looking at longer trends.

It's not for everyone, I happen to like stats and stuff, so get on with this. But I've never played to any great level, so have absolutely no insight into the game from that perspective. I like forums like this, because it brings together lots of different ideas and perspectives

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:41 pm 
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I'm going for 1-1 tonight, think Brentford will be well up for it and we need to match that if we are to get anything

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:57 pm 
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Well looks like we are doomed....first loss of five in a row As we slip back into the playoff spots. Either that or a win that takes us well clear. Or a draw that does neither.


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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:59 pm 
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I predict that the crowd will go “Oooohhh” a few times from both sets of fans. Also someone will shout abuse at the referees. Poor refs I do feel for them. I have reff’d the odd game and they do get some stick....

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:02 pm 
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Mind you I not a very good referee. Recently a guy was shouting at me that someone was offside...and I eventually had to tell him that the rules had changed and they have to be in possession of the ball or in active play...

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:24 pm 
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Staying at hotel where players met up this afternoon. They looked strong and relaxed as they walked through Reception 15 mins ago. Quietly confident, but not complacent?

Look good for my 3-1 prediction!

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:30 pm 
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I am surprised that they meet in a hotel??? What’s wrong with our training ground....?

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:38 pm 
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RickyB wrote:
I am surprised that they meet in a hotel??? What’s wrong with our training ground....?


Pre-match meal or similar I would guess or, perhaps Silver is talking about the Bees Players. :?

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:40 pm 
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RickyB wrote:
Hi,

I wonder what Brian clough would have made of those graphs?
I can guess where he wiped with them!

Not sure that they make a difference personally ...it’s easy to complicate a simple situation.

Brentford are no pushovers, so I think it will be tight. 1-1 or 1-2 to them
That’s based on form alone....because I live in America and I haven’t seen wolves play this season. Will be coming to the uk to watch them play forest, I hope.

Rich


XG are not really useful when making a game plan. They’re a big picture statistic. It’s useful for coaches to look, objectively, and see if they’re truly generating quality chances consistently. You don’t always meet your xG. Sometimes you surpass it with some worldly or lucky shots and sometimes you bottle the easy chances or thekeeper makes a worldly save. Just because you’ve only scored 1 goal in the last three games doens’t necessarily mean you have had a bad game plan or the team is struggling to create. Obviously a lot of coaches can observe this with their eye, but statistics are objective evidence. You can’t build a team or strategy solely on your gut and scouting. Nor can you build a team or strategy solely with statistics.


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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:46 pm 
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RickyB wrote:
I am surprised that they meet in a hotel??? What’s wrong with our training ground....?


I believe i read that Nuno makes them meet up and stay overnight at a hotel now, even for home games. I guess to keep the group togetherness and make home/away matches feel similar in buildup?


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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:53 pm 
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Doubt they would stay for an evening game. Probably met about midday for a relax, meal, rub down....

And it was OUR boys! Even I can spot Batthe, Neves & Saiss. And wife spotted Boly.... seems strangely ‘ distant’ over meal....!

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:58 pm 
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Just one starting lineup change from Bristol City with Batth suspended, match winner Bennett gets the nod.

Ruddy; Bennett, Coady (c), Boly; Doherty, Saiss, Neves, Douglas; Costa, Bonatini, Jota

Subs: Norris; House, Vinagre; N’Diaye, Gibbs-White, Cavaleiro, Bright


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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:04 pm 
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R.I.P John Hendley, passed away today, was a club employee / historian/programme editor for many years.

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:15 pm 
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I'm surprised that Costa starts instead of Cav.

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:26 pm 
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SilverstoneWolf wrote:
Doubt they would stay for an evening game. Probably met about midday for a relax, meal, rub down....

And it was OUR boys! Even I can spot Batthe, Neves & Saiss. And wife spotted Boly.... seems strangely ‘ distant’ over meal....!


Perhaps she couldn't get big willy off her mind

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:31 pm 
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gladbachwolf wrote:
R.I.P John Hendley, passed away today, was a club employee / historian/programme editor for many years.


Rest in Peace Foz, a man who truly loved Wolves

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:40 pm 
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SELWolf wrote:
I'm surprised that Costa starts instead of Cav.


Maybe. I guess he's trying to give players as good a rest as possible, ones who aren't that used to this hectic fixture period

I'll readily admit to being one of those fans worrying about foreign players settling. It wasn't really the odd wet or wintry evening match oop north, it was the Xmas/new year fixture pile up that concerned me - a world away from their usual winter break with some warm weather training camp

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:48 pm 
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Is there a radio station with the game commentary? If anyone knows please let me know - I have no video this week. Cheers

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:50 pm 
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Leo almost puts us ahead early. Off the inside of the post. Got the feed from Costa. Early goings, but having a better game already than he had against Bristol City


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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:52 pm 
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I found one! Happily listening to Talk Sport 2.

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:57 pm 
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Wolfhawk wrote:
I found one! Happily listening to Talk Sport 2.


Good shout that Mate, also tuned in now. Sounds a bit London biest, but better than now't. :lol:

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:03 pm 
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Moscow Wolf wrote:
Wolfhawk wrote:
I found one! Happily listening to Talk Sport 2.


Good shout that Mate, also tuned in now. Sounds a bit London biest, but better than now't. :lol:


Haha, spoke too soon as now they have cut me off announcing it is a UK only broadcast and I don't have a VPN to hide behind at the moment. :cry:

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:10 pm 
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Moscow Wolf wrote:
Moscow Wolf wrote:
Wolfhawk wrote:
I found one! Happily listening to Talk Sport 2.


Good shout that Mate, also tuned in now. Sounds a bit London biest, but better than now't. :lol:


Haha, spoke too soon as now they have cut me off announcing it is a UK only broadcast and I don't have a VPN to hide behind at the moment. :cry:


I use a free VPN for times like this. I get about 2 gig which I only use for radio commentary or region locked videos.

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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:33 pm 
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HT 0 - 0.


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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:46 pm 
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107.7 FM has it on.

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