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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 9:34 pm 
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SELWolf wrote:
The % swing was +2% in Labour's favour. I can't put it any simpler. Besides, this evening it was said on the news that Labour had a greater % majority so I guess all the psephologists who the supply data can't do sums, either. :shock:
Edit:

In fact, just to make things even simpler I thought that this might be helpful:

Quote:
Labour Win Oldham West And Royton By-Election
Sky News‎ - 17 hours ago
Labour's Jim McMahon has seen off the challenge from UKIP to win the ... to 62.7 % and there was a 2.39% swing from UKIP to Labour. ... "I am delighted that Labour has not only won the Oldham West and Royston by-election ...


Mr Rozza wrote:
...the way I look at it is this, labour had nearly 4,000 fewer people vote for them than did at the last election, am I right so far?
Those 4,000 represent a drop in supporters of about 28% over that time.
I could say summat more but what the Hell.



The point I make thought Sel is that all of those stats are correct. It's not the maths it is the interpretation that is put on them which varies according to each individual's judgement. You see the swing towards Labour (correct - but I note it was away from UKIP not Tory). Rozza sees the reduction in overall Labour vote (correct - but less people voted altogether). There is nothing wrong with the Maths of either.

I think any Psephologist worthy of his or her psephology will tell you that the result of a single election is not likely to provide a statistically valid extrapolation across the whole country . Context is also important, I understand that around 18% of the population of Oldham is Muslim, the vote on Syria (what this thread is meant to be about) was only the day before, did this single issue influence the way people voted and would it still have the same effect in, say, a year from now?

I am simply saying that I don't believe that there is anything much can be gleaned from this one result. - And by the way, the psephologists didn't appear to do their sums very well at the last election. :wink:

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:04 pm 
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Thank you for explaining the rationale Mr Back. I have to add that the comprehensive I went to taught me to read, the job I am in taught me to question what I read.
My maths are, until someone shows me otherwise, correct. I can go online and read the headlines myself, I await a Venn diagram or a Jon Snow lecture or a kick up the arse to show me whats wrong.

Point of order, this thread was started several years ago, a time before Jeremy was even considered to be a contender. He was in a commune outside of a naval base in Scotland saving seals and knitting banners and stuff if I remember.

As previously stated, three years is a long time in politics.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:13 pm 
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Rozza wrote:
I await a Venn diagram


You appear to move in the right circles.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:18 am 
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Left back wrote:
I think any Psephologist worthy of his or her psephology will tell you that the result of a single election is not likely to provide a statistically valid extrapolation across the whole country .

I am simply saying that I don't believe that there is anything much can be gleaned from this one result. - And by the way, the psephologists didn't appear to do their sums very well at the last election. :wink:


I wouldn't disagree with either comment (although the psephologists did predict that the Tories would be the largest party until the final day when it was obvious that there was a further swing away from Labour so they weren't that far out, as the mood always changes over the four weeks beforehand). But for many of us concerning this by-election the crucial issue is that the media predicted a land-slide for UKIP right up to the last moment (and I don't think that it had a lot to do with their forecasts based on the psephologisits predictions - more on media frenzy and shit-stirring) in the atmosphere of the Labour leadership swinging far to the left, the Party being divided with a revolt on its hands and Corbyn painted as being incompetent. That didn't happen; far from it, there was a 2.6% swing to their favour after losing a long-standing and popular MP.

It will, indeed, be interesting to see how other by-elections turn out.

However, in conclusion, Rozza got his sums completely wrong and your comment in his support was (and still is) curious. My sums were done as mental arithmetic and the result confirmed at the end of the afternoon. :mrgreen:

Anyhow, I've said enough. I can't make myself clearer.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:49 am 
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Who said this in 2015?

"the 7/7 bombers ‘gave their lives’ for the cause"

who said this in 2005?

"This was not a terrorist attack against the mighty and powerful. It was not aimed at Presidents or Prime Minister.
‘It was aimed at ordinary, working-class Londoners, black and white, Muslim and Christian, Hindu and Jew, young and old. It was an indiscriminate attempt to slaughter, irrespective of any consideration for age, for class, for religion, or whatever.
‘That isn’t an ideology, it isn’t even a perverted faith – it is just an indiscriminate attempt at mass murder and we know what the objective is.
‘They seek to divide Londoners. They seek to turn Londoners against each other.’

The same person :oops: soon towed Corbyn's line :dickhead

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2015 7:44 am 
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Left back wrote:
Rozza wrote:
I await a Venn diagram


You appear to move in the right circles.


Oi :x

Me and Ken are the only one's on ere who vote concentric.....

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:07 am 
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In a recent survey, Kim Kardashian's arse stated, it would definitely have voted in favour of air strikes


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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2015 7:04 pm 
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https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives ... for-power/

Watch out for Hilary Benn.

Not sure why anyone expected anything else but a comfortable Labour hold in Oldham, wishful thinking by the Blairites.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2015 9:40 am 
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Well any thoughts on Donald the Trump?

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2015 12:26 pm 
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Why the hate towards Trump, simple really?
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/12/06/t ... on-israel/
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/com ... 98171.html

In addition his opposition to free trade, mass immigration and support for a better form of socialised medical care puts him right in the mainstream of American political opinion.

Interestingly enough his closest political adviser is Roger Stone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FVsS2sDkpE

I remember hearing Trump interviewed by Jesse Ventura years ago where they both lamented that special interests were destroying America. The guy is running out of concern for his country, not for personal gain, he has already taken a financial hit.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2015 2:04 pm 
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THE BIG BAD WOLF wrote:
Why the hate towards Trump, simple really?
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/12/06/t ... on-israel/
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/com ... 98171.html

In addition his opposition to free trade, mass immigration and support for a better form of socialised medical care puts him right in the mainstream of American political opinion.

Interestingly enough his closest political adviser is Roger Stone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FVsS2sDkpE

I remember hearing Trump interviewed by Jesse Ventura years ago where they both lamented that special interests were destroying America. The guy is running out of concern for his country, not for personal gain, he has already taken a financial hit.


If this twat wins, the good old USA will revert to isolationism. Good for the Russ, not so good for the small, now free states the Russ will eat for breakfast.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:25 pm 
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knocker knowles wrote:
Well any thoughts on Donald the Trump?


He aint no Musslim bruv.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2015 5:16 pm 
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Blimey Piers Morgan talking the most sense!

Have any of the 200k+ Brits who've signed the petition to ban Trump signed any petition to ban UK terror suspects returning from Iraq/Syria?

https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/ ... 2131723264

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 24, 2015 10:33 am 
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https://consortiumnews.com/2015/12/22/a ... in-attack/

Media and political types continue to claim Assad 'gassed his own people' despite the evidence saying otherwise.

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n01/seymour-m- ... o-military

Hersh can't get published except in the lrb. The US military has been covertly supporting the Syrian government since 2013, behind Obama's back.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:44 pm 
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THE BIG BAD WOLF wrote:
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/12/22/a-call-for-proof-on-syria-sarin-attack/

Media and political types continue to claim Assad 'gassed his own people' despite the evidence saying otherwise.


WMD and all that.

"They're behind you!"

"Oh no, they're not!"

etc. etc. etc.

But they must have been 'cos Blair went to Washington to see the proof and he said that he saw it.

"Oh no, he didn't!"

etc. etc. etc.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:15 am 
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I thought this article from the BBC to be one of the more balanced views that I have read of late so I am sharing:- :wink:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35539897

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:56 pm 
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Moscow Wolf wrote:
I thought this article from the BBC to be one of the more balanced views that I have read of late so I am sharing:- :wink:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35539897


Is Vlad The Lad welcoming any refugees in to Mother Russia, or are they West or bust?

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 4:40 pm 
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Embers wrote:
Moscow Wolf wrote:
I thought this article from the BBC to be one of the more balanced views that I have read of late so I am sharing:- :wink:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35539897


Is Vlad The Lad welcoming any refugees in to Mother Russia, or are they West or bust?


Of course not, they don't want to destroy their country.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alastair- ... 69998.html

BBC, never trust a state broadcaster. You will see a very dramatic change in policy when Trump becomes President.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... e-revealed

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:23 am 
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Normal people think about the people, governments think about strategy.

America and Russia only think strategically.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:48 pm 
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THE BIG BAD WOLF wrote:
Embers wrote:
Moscow Wolf wrote:
I thought this article from the BBC to be one of the more balanced views that I have read of late so I am sharing:- :wink:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35539897


Is Vlad The Lad welcoming any refugees in to Mother Russia, or are they West or bust?


Of course not, they don't want to destroy their country.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alastair- ... 69998.html

BBC, never trust a state broadcaster. You will see a very dramatic change in policy when Trump becomes President.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... e-revealed


Interesting. Is anyone else reporting a build up of Turkish troops on their border indicating tension leading towards WAR? If Turkey did invade Syria on the excuse of dealing with the Kurds then, I don't think NATO could/would do anything more than spout rhetoric as the article suggests however, if Russia does anything more than give Turkey a bloody nose and push them back to their own borders then, under the Treaty of the Alliance, I guess that NATO has to do something more tangible? :idea:

Scary thoughts as I am a whole deal closer to it than you guys back in the UK.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:43 am 
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Time to take up the time honoured NATO position then Mozzi lad. Look the other way; put your head in the sand and blame someone else.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:13 am 
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Russia are starting to get serious and wont take the flannel the USA are trying to put forward.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:17 am 
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knocker knowles wrote:
Russia are starting to get serious and wont take the flannel the USA are trying to put forward.


Yes, but what happens if Donald Trump gets in to the White House :?: :shock:

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:47 am 
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http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semp ... it-is.html

The Colonel says the 2nd Turkish Army is in an attack posture on the border. He has gone from thinking it is too nuts to happen to now quite possible, with Erdogan who knows? Supposedly the Russians got intel that the Turks were going to shoot down a Russian jet, they dismissed it as it was thought to be too crazy for them to go through with.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:44 pm 
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THE BIG BAD WOLF wrote:
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2016/02/the-syria-deal-whatever-it-is.html

The Colonel says the 2nd Turkish Army is in an attack posture on the border. He has gone from thinking it is too nuts to happen to now quite possible, with Erdogan who knows? Supposedly the Russians got intel that the Turks were going to shoot down a Russian jet, they dismissed it as it was thought to be too crazy for them to go through with.


Indeed. Madness to think anyone would bring down an aircraft :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:01 pm 
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http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semp ... turks.html

So US ally Turkey has started shelling the US supported Kurdish SDF in Syria, that is fighting the CIA backed FSA and Al Qaeda/Al Nusra. What does it all mean? Who knows but the Turks would be shredded by the Syrian and Russian air forces if they cross the border.

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:59 pm 
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THE BIG BAD WOLF wrote:
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2016/02/ah-the-terrible-turks.html

So US ally Turkey has started shelling the US supported Kurdish SDF in Syria, that is fighting the CIA backed FSA and Al Qaeda/Al Nusra. What does it all mean? Who knows but the Turks would be shredded by the Syrian and Russian air forces if they cross the border.


I heard second-hand that the Bulgarian media is saying that Saudi aircraft are also involved supporting the Turks. :?:

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 3:57 pm 
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Supposedly the Saudis have sent 20 fighters to Turkey, I am sure Saudi pilots would be great in a dogfight...

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:39 pm 
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THE BIG BAD WOLF wrote:
Supposedly the Saudis have sent 20 fighters to Turkey, I am sure Saudi pilots would be great in a dogfight...


Well, they've probably had the best training possible and no less battle hardened than the Russians albeit, from what I read, the technology in these aircraft is almost where you look, your air to air missile will go. Not much need for Red Baron type actions nowadays.

Russia has moved Four of its top notch fighter aircraft into Syria and the Saudis are the ones with anything like a match for it. Not sure about the UAE and what they have.

Some non-mainstream news sites are suggesting that we are 18 days away from a limited Nuclear War. :idea:

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 Post subject: Re: Syria
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2016 11:18 am 
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