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 Post Posted: Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:41 pm 
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shropswolf wrote:

To "win" a constituency you merely need one more vote than the 2nd placed candidate, not a majority, so it's not comparing apples and oranges if you're considering a yes/no issue.

Example:
In constituency X only 10,000 people come out to vote:

4000 vote Labour, 3000 vote Tory, 2001 vote UKIP, 999 vote Lib Dem

40% of the electorate voted Labour athe constituency becomes "a Labour constituency"

All Tory and UKIP voters wanted to leave in the EU poll, but all Labour and Lib Dem voters wanted to remain.

The constituency therefore was 5,001 leave vs 4,999 remain. It is therefore referred to as a "leave constituency".

If the same voters don't come out for Labour next time, it receives no votes.


I have to admit I don't get the logic in your example. You could substitute any other set of nunbers to come up with an answer whichever way you want. What we do know is that 52% of voters opted for out and many of those were from Labour held constituencies. That really doesn't tally in my mind with saying over 80% of Labour voters voted Leave.

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 Post Posted: Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:07 pm 
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shropswolf wrote:

To "win" a constituency you merely need one more vote than the 2nd placed candidate, not a majority, so it's not comparing apples and oranges if you're considering a yes/no issue.

Example:
In constituency X only 10,000 people come out to vote:

4000 vote Labour, 3000 vote Tory, 2001 vote UKIP, 999 vote Lib Dem

40% of the electorate voted Labour athe constituency becomes "a Labour constituency"

All Tory and UKIP voters wanted to leave in the EU poll, but all Labour and Lib Dem voters wanted to remain.

The constituency therefore was 5,001 leave vs 4,999 remain. It is therefore referred to as a "leave constituency".

If the same voters don't come out for Labour next time, it receives no votes.


Surely if you win 1 more seat than anyone else you must have the majority ?

I know what you mean as in you can have less then 50% and still win but you still have 'a' majority don't you if not 'the' majority'?

but yes in essence that sort of what I was saying earlier in the thread its about how many of their voters they feel they can get back by supporting remain as opposed to losing them to either remain or leave by not fully supporting either.

a Tory/Brexit party agreement (in the right consituencies) could scupper that of course, as (I think) according to your stats 66% of Labour voters support remain & even though I'm not convinced by that that means 33% support leave...and thats still a hefty amount to gamble with.


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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:57 am 
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I sadly, by mistake, got caught listening to "Luvvies Central" aka 5-Live tuther day.

Again ( when will it ever stop ) leave voters, ringing in used their favourite slight, "Little Englander".

But listening to their arguments, who are Little Englanders? Each and everyone of them was predicting the end of the world for them if we trade with the rest of the world rather than the EU. I would totally support many of their short term arguments, all based on the very narrow period predicted before trade and money kick in overpowering petty politics, if the EU is what we joined when we joined it. It is not.

The recent unelected nominations to run the Reich, are all die-hard Federalists. I have never heard a retainer acknowledge that the stated aims of the EU are now, centralised economic policies, centralised foreign policies, and defence via an EU Army ( pushed for by a German who could not get her aircraft to fly, her submarines to take to the sea, or her army to turn up with anything better than broom handles).

These Goals are given by Macron and Mutter as the necessary aims to stave off the total disintegration of the block. Why are these rather large elephants in the room never mentioned by leave voters? Did they understand what they were voting for ? Or do they think they will be safe from future European obligations behind the walls of their "Little England" ?

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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:48 am 
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Maybe Mr Speaker will pull a rabbit out of the hat, or maybe the grandees still have something up their sleeves. Who knows? But as things stand it’s clear that the only way to prevent a catastrophic crash-out on 31 Oct is to vote the Withdrawal Agreement Bill through 2nd Reading.

Stephen Kinnock.

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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:55 pm 
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knocker knowles wrote:
Maybe Mr Speaker will pull a rabbit out of the hat, or maybe the grandees still have something up their sleeves. Who knows? But as things stand it’s clear that the only way to prevent a catastrophic crash-out on 31 Oct is to vote the Withdrawal Agreement Bill through 2nd Reading.

Stephen Kinnock.



Ah Yes Stephen Kinnock - I think we've discussed him before - This is the Stephen Kinnock of the Kinnock family who have been major recipients of the EU gravy train for several years...no conflict of interest there then.

I couldn't give a flying what he thinks tbh


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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:04 pm 
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suiging wrote:
I sadly, by mistake, got caught listening to "Luvvies Central" aka 5-Live tuther day.

Again ( when will it ever stop ) leave voters, ringing in used their favourite slight, "Little Englander".

But listening to their arguments, who are Little Englanders? Each and everyone of them was predicting the end of the world for them if we trade with the rest of the world rather than the EU. I would totally support many of their short term arguments, all based on the very narrow period predicted before trade and money kick in overpowering petty politics, if the EU is what we joined when we joined it. It is not.

The recent unelected nominations to run the Reich, are all die-hard Federalists. I have never heard a retainer acknowledge that the stated aims of the EU are now, centralised economic policies, centralised foreign policies, and defence via an EU Army ( pushed for by a German who could not get her aircraft to fly, her submarines to take to the sea, or her army to turn up with anything better than broom handles).

These Goals are given by Macron and Mutter as the necessary aims to stave off the total disintegration of the block. Why are these rather large elephants in the room never mentioned by leave voters? Did they understand what they were voting for ? Or do they think they will be safe from future European obligations behind the walls of their "Little England" ?


If we take your point about the EU ideal being more about the creation of a federal Europe rather being a trade superpower we can conclude that Brexit will not derail their key aims.
They will not allow their vision for Europe to be checked by the UK.

So in the end what matters most if your government cant conclude a deal that protects jobs within its own state.
Do you accept massive job losses, prices of goods in the shops going through the roof.

When does the economic reality set in?

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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:02 pm 
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knocker knowles wrote:
suiging wrote:
I sadly, by mistake, got caught listening to "Luvvies Central" aka 5-Live tuther day.

Again ( when will it ever stop ) leave voters, ringing in used their favourite slight, "Little Englander".

But listening to their arguments, who are Little Englanders? Each and everyone of them was predicting the end of the world for them if we trade with the rest of the world rather than the EU. I would totally support many of their short term arguments, all based on the very narrow period predicted before trade and money kick in overpowering petty politics, if the EU is what we joined when we joined it. It is not.

The recent unelected nominations to run the Reich, are all die-hard Federalists. I have never heard a retainer acknowledge that the stated aims of the EU are now, centralised economic policies, centralised foreign policies, and defence via an EU Army ( pushed for by a German who could not get her aircraft to fly, her submarines to take to the sea, or her army to turn up with anything better than broom handles).

These Goals are given by Macron and Mutter as the necessary aims to stave off the total disintegration of the block. Why are these rather large elephants in the room never mentioned by leave voters? Did they understand what they were voting for ? Or do they think they will be safe from future European obligations behind the walls of their "Little England" ?


If we take your point about the EU ideal being more about the creation of a federal Europe rather being a trade superpower we can conclude that Brexit will not derail their key aims.
They will not allow their vision for Europe to be checked by the UK.

So in the end what matters most if your government cant conclude a deal that protects jobs within its own state.
Do you accept massive job losses, prices of goods in the shops going through the roof.

When does the economic reality set in?


Prices of goods will not go through the roof. We are a major importer. Many European businesses rely heavily on UK trade, the politicians may wish to punish. Business won't let them. Business and money trump pettiness and protectionism every time. The EU imposed tariffs on "basics" will come off. EU impose tariffs on other goods will be tempered by the manufacturers need to sell them. It's called trade.

There will of course be bumps along the road, but not many. Already this week the Irish have admitted there will be no hard border imposed by them. We won't put one in, another problem blown out of all proportions settled. In short, if I can't buy a French apple for a month or two, i'll buy a South African one, or indeed suit from Spain. The EU brotherhood will cut each others throats to make money. They always have they always will.

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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:08 pm 
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And I will add all the bull about job protection, is just that bull.

Jobs are protected by competitive businesses selling a competitive product. How does that change when we expand our market horizons ?

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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:56 pm 
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Sir Ivan Rogers. blokes one of the few experts worth listening too.

“We are dealing with a political generation which has no serious experience of bad times and is frankly cavalier about precipitating events they cannot then control, but feel they might exploit.”


Will Boris Johnson’s bluster over a no deal Brexit collide with reality?

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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:34 pm 
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knocker knowles wrote:
suiging wrote:
I sadly, by mistake, got caught listening to "Luvvies Central" aka 5-Live tuther day.

Again ( when will it ever stop ) leave voters, ringing in used their favourite slight, "Little Englander".

But listening to their arguments, who are Little Englanders? Each and everyone of them was predicting the end of the world for them if we trade with the rest of the world rather than the EU. I would totally support many of their short term arguments, all based on the very narrow period predicted before trade and money kick in overpowering petty politics, if the EU is what we joined when we joined it. It is not.

The recent unelected nominations to run the Reich, are all die-hard Federalists. I have never heard a retainer acknowledge that the stated aims of the EU are now, centralised economic policies, centralised foreign policies, and defence via an EU Army ( pushed for by a German who could not get her aircraft to fly, her submarines to take to the sea, or her army to turn up with anything better than broom handles).

These Goals are given by Macron and Mutter as the necessary aims to stave off the total disintegration of the block. Why are these rather large elephants in the room never mentioned by leave voters? Did they understand what they were voting for ? Or do they think they will be safe from future European obligations behind the walls of their "Little England" ?


If we take your point about the EU ideal being more about the creation of a federal Europe rather being a trade superpower we can conclude that Brexit will not derail their key aims.
They will not allow their vision for Europe to be checked by the UK.

So in the end what matters most if your government cant conclude a deal that protects jobs within its own state.
Do you accept massive job losses, prices of goods in the shops going through the roof.

When does the economic reality set in?


Interesting response KK,

It seems to me you are now agreeing that the aim of the EU is a Federal Europe - which is what the UK peoples who noticed and cared voted against ...so in that case I am happy we voted out.

Or you are saying that trade will out ...in which case again I'm happy we voted out.

The fact that you also agree that they are nought but bullies also adds to my pleasure that we got out- or at least we will.

It almost seems to me in the language you are using that you are agreeing that the EU will not be stopped.

This is - whether you like it or not - and I am loath to state it- akin to the appeasement many wanted in 1939.

You are agreeing that instead of giving in to violence we appease a different sort of bullying.

I may also add that I believe the same can be said of those that argue we should stay in Europe merely to stop any border in Ireland due to concerns about violence.

Again you are giving in to the threat of 'something' , allowing that to dictate sovereign choices.

I don't think we should be doing that.


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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:50 pm 
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where we disagree is the exit strategy.

There are so many rules and regulations, standards and such interwoven over decades that cant be ignored.
But they can bring a nation to a standstill if you struggle to move trade beyond borders.

Now this government should have approached the EXIT in a different manner.

Through EEA EFTA you have a working framework from which to build on which could through time create a European trade block.
Do that and you counter the other block who have other ideas, because other nations will also want self control and will join you.

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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:52 pm 
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knocker knowles wrote:
where we disagree is the exit strategy.

There are so many rules and regulations, standards and such interwoven over decades that cant be ignored.
But they can bring a nation to a standstill if you struggle to move trade beyond borders.

Now this government should have approached the EXIT in a different manner.

Through EEA EFTA you have a working framework from which to build on which could through time create a European trade block.
Do that and you counter the other block who have other ideas, because other nations will also want self control and will join you.


But you support remain....right ?

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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:59 pm 
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suiging wrote:
knocker knowles wrote:
where we disagree is the exit strategy.

There are so many rules and regulations, standards and such interwoven over decades that cant be ignored.
But they can bring a nation to a standstill if you struggle to move trade beyond borders.

Now this government should have approached the EXIT in a different manner.

Through EEA EFTA you have a working framework from which to build on which could through time create a European trade block.
Do that and you counter the other block who have other ideas, because other nations will also want self control and will join you.


But you support remain....right ?


I have to if the required framework is not in place to enable leaving without excessive harm

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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:01 pm 
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knocker knowles wrote:
suiging wrote:
knocker knowles wrote:
where we disagree is the exit strategy.

There are so many rules and regulations, standards and such interwoven over decades that cant be ignored.
But they can bring a nation to a standstill if you struggle to move trade beyond borders.

Now this government should have approached the EXIT in a different manner.

Through EEA EFTA you have a working framework from which to build on which could through time create a European trade block.
Do that and you counter the other block who have other ideas, because other nations will also want self control and will join you.


But you support remain....right ?


I have to if the required framework is not in place to enable leaving without excessive harm


I think you'll be pleasantly surprised how strong we are as a nation.

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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:19 pm 
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"]where we disagree is the exit strategy.

There are so many rules and regulations, standards and such interwoven over decades that cant be ignored.
But they can bring a nation to a standstill if you struggle to move trade beyond borders.

Now this government should have approached the EXIT in a different manner.

Through EEA EFTA you have a working framework from which to build on which could through time create a European trade block.
Do that and you counter the other block who have other ideas, because other nations will also want self control and will join you.[/quote]

But you support remain....right ?

I have to if the required framework is not in place to enable leaving without excessive harm quote

I think you'll be pleasantly surprised how strong we are as a nation.[/quote][/quote]

This is where I feel your argument falls apart.

What I see is huge tariffs, blocked ports, sky high prices, industry at a standstill.

Then quite quickly Johnson or whoever running cap in hand to the EU for a deal.

This time a deal will be on lesser terms, far worse terms.

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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:29 pm 
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Under no-deal the UK has confirmed that it would levy zero tariffs on imported wheat & barley to avoid stoking domestic inflation. In contrast, the EU would have to levy the default WTO tariff on our cereal exports which would be almost €100 per tonne.

James Cartlidge MP.

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 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:31 pm 
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knocker knowles wrote:
Under no-deal the UK has confirmed that it would levy zero tariffs on imported wheat & barley to avoid stoking domestic inflation. In contrast, the EU would have to levy the default WTO tariff on our cereal exports which would be almost €100 per tonne.

James Cartlidge MP.


But he's a Tory Knocker. You taught me not to believe a word Tories utter.

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 Post Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:01 am 
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I am heartily sick to death of this self proclaimed legal guardian of those liberal elitists.
You talk about self promotion KK and here is THE biggest exponent of that genre.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48980408

My one driving hope is that she has to fund her challenge herself- lets see how convicted she is to the cause then-or to put it another way ...put your money where your mouth is.

she's had her 5 minutes of fame - why doesn't she just fuck off .


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 Post Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:02 pm 
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davejonesears wrote:
I am heartily sick to death of this self proclaimed legal guardian of those liberal elitists.
You talk about self promotion KK and here is THE biggest exponent of that genre.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48980408

My one driving hope is that she has to fund her challenge herself- lets see how convicted she is to the cause then-or to put it another way ...put your money where your mouth is.

she's had her 5 minutes of fame - why doesn't she just fuck off .



Because she is a poster person ( not allowed to speculate about her gender) for the woke. She/he often shows as female. She/he is an immigrant of colour, and of course she/he opposes democracy and the will of the British people. She's/he's holding all the cards, and she's/he's not afraid to play any or all of them.

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 Post Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:22 pm 
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The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year

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 Post Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 5:23 pm 
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knocker knowles wrote:
The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year


Outstanding for our exports when we get to the free markets eh Knocker? Also makes home grown produce attractive overseas and cheaper than imports at home, wonderful.

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 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:47 am 
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suiging wrote:
knocker knowles wrote:
The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year


Outstanding for our exports when we get to the free markets eh Knocker? Also makes home grown produce attractive overseas and cheaper than imports at home, wonderful.


Bit of a myth this free market idea, the way its presented. Truth is the EU will always be by far the largest market. Massive problem though as goods arriving in the EU from 3rd countries have so many new regulations.
Global companies may as well keep all components in house.

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 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:35 am 
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knocker knowles wrote:
suiging wrote:
knocker knowles wrote:
The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year


Outstanding for our exports when we get to the free markets eh Knocker? Also makes home grown produce attractive overseas and cheaper than imports at home, wonderful.


Bit of a myth this free market idea, the way its presented. Truth is the EU will always be by far the largest market. Massive problem though as goods arriving in the EU from 3rd countries have so many new regulations.
Global companies may as well keep all components in house.


EU the biggest market ? Is not the world and the EU combined far larger ?

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 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:22 pm 
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suiging wrote:
knocker knowles"]The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year

Outstanding for our exports when we get to the free markets eh Knocker? Also makes home grown produce attractive overseas and cheaper than imports at home, wonderful.

Bit of a myth this free market idea, the way its presented. Truth is the EU will always be by far the largest market. Massive problem though as goods arriving in the EU from 3rd countries have so many new regulations.
Global companies may as well keep all components in house.


EU the biggest market ? Is not the world and the EU combined far larger ?[/quote]

By far the biggest market for the UK especially if you wish to create a more rounded economy.

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 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:11 pm 
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knocker knowles wrote:
suiging wrote:
knocker knowles"]The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year

Outstanding for our exports when we get to the free markets eh Knocker? Also makes home grown produce attractive overseas and cheaper than imports at home, wonderful.

Bit of a myth this free market idea, the way its presented. Truth is the EU will always be by far the largest market. Massive problem though as goods arriving in the EU from 3rd countries have so many new regulations.
Global companies may as well keep all components in house.


EU the biggest market ? Is not the world and the EU combined far larger ?


By far the biggest market for the UK especially if you wish to create a more rounded economy.[/quote]

How does the EU in any way equate to a "rounded" economy?

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 Post Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:59 am 
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suiging wrote:
knocker knowles wrote:
suiging wrote:
knocker knowles"]The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year

Outstanding for our exports when we get to the free markets eh Knocker? Also makes home grown produce attractive overseas and cheaper than imports at home, wonderful.

Bit of a myth this free market idea, the way its presented. Truth is the EU will always be by far the largest market. Massive problem though as goods arriving in the EU from 3rd countries have so many new regulations.
Global companies may as well keep all components in house.


EU the biggest market ? Is not the world and the EU combined far larger ?


By far the biggest market for the UK especially if you wish to create a more rounded economy.


How does the EU in any way equate to a "rounded" economy?[/quote]

By moving beyond the stitch up which left the UK working man without an industrial structure.

Farming for the French.
Manufacturing for the Germans.
Financial services for the UK.

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 Post Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:36 am 
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knocker knowles wrote:
suiging wrote:
knocker knowles wrote:

By far the biggest market for the UK especially if you wish to create a more rounded economy.


How does the EU in any way equate to a "rounded" economy?


By moving beyond the stitch up which left the UK working man without an industrial structure.

Farming for the French.
Manufacturing for the Germans.
Financial services for the UK.


Exactly why would they do that- fantasy dream world.


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 Post Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:42 am 
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49062514

Oh dear & Boris was soooooo looking forward to working with you ...you and Roderick.

This bloke has done his best to undermine the leave process at every opportunity - aided and abbeted by Mrs May- who allowed him to carry on with his remain stance contrary to the governments position- of which he was a prominent member.

The blokes a prize one prick.


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 Post Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:57 am 
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]

By far the biggest market for the UK especially if you wish to create a more rounded economy.[/quote]

How does the EU in any way equate to a "rounded" economy?[/quote]

By moving beyond the stitch up which left the UK working man without an industrial structure.

Farming for the French.
Manufacturing for the Germans.
Financial services for the UK.[/quote]

Exactly why would they do that- fantasy dream world.[/quote]

Its what was agreed half a century ago and was allowed to happen.

Anyway when we leave without a deal we move on past article 50 onto Article 218.

That's more complicated.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/articl ... rticle-50/

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 Post Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:25 pm 
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So Swinson has come clean, even if the result of her much demanded 'People's Vote' comes out for leave, she won't honour it.

Why have a 'People' s Vote' if the people calling for it won't honour it unless it goes their way..... Democracy?

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